315,000 to 483,000 cumulative COVID-19 deaths by February 2021?

🔗 NPR: What’s Coming This Winter? Here’s How Many More Could Die In The Pandemic

The model forecasts three different scenarios to reflect the potential impact of policies and people’s behavior on outcomes. The worst assumes social distancing mandates continue to be rolled back — and projects nearly 483,000 cumulative deaths by Feb. 1. The rosiest scenario assumes communities reimpose such mandates when deaths reach a certain level per capita and that nearly everyone wears masks. In that case, cumulative deaths could still reach nearly 315,000.